Foreign Office Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".
Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.
Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working
Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Courses considered in the files were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers
It cautioned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Playing the Longer Game Recommended
The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
