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The most severe possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by researchers, encompassing a scorching 4C rise in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in ocean levels. A separate possibility foresees a plunge of 6C in temperature following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy needs.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are seen as low probability but plausible. The researchers explained that these models plugged a hole in forecasting that had left the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.

"The severe weather events we have mapped are not forecasts, but they are possible," stated the professor who directed the study. "Britain has been formulating policy without the tools to test against extreme possibilities. We've now given decision-makers what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A further series of worst-case scenarios details the projected severity of severe conditions between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The chance of the extreme scenarios occurring remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what measures will be taken to tackle global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This approach was described as similar to defence planning or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Outcome Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts collapses or if powerful amplifying effects such as the Amazon rainforest perishing unleash its vast reserves of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heatwaves and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to global heating. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be completely altered," explained Arnell.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, flooding low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be utilized in planning the development of critical national infrastructure, including new towns, power generation facilities and water management networks. Awareness of these environmental threats could also hasten the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The study created the extreme models using a mix of past data and records, climate models and climate physics. These outcomes omit broader worldwide issues such as the devastation of food supplies and increased conflict.

This work was requested as part of a national risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have stated that not enough attention was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the threats for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

A national response said: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is prepared for the impacts."