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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”